Three Points: WVU at Pitt

I. If you don’t listen to Ken Pomeroy, you are destined to lose: This, from Pomeroy’s mailbag posted just today.

Ken, I am not really a basketball fan, so please forgive me if my question seems idiotic. After reading your Memphis free-throw article, I thought perhaps you would be the best person to answer it. In the final seconds of the Georgetown at West Virginia game on January 26, WVU held a 57-55 lead. GU had the ball and was trying to set for a final shot.Once it got under 10 seconds remaining with GU still not set up, my admittedly inexperienced instinct was that WVU should foul before GU could begin to shoot. They did not, and GU took a three-point attempt that fell with six seconds remaining, resulting in a 58-57 GU victory.My question is simply this: Which of the two strategies has a greater mathematical probability of success? Allow GU to shoot from the floor and possibly hit a (virtual) game-winning 3-pointer, or Intentionally foul GU before they start to shoot and once the clock got under 10 seconds Shane Before we take a look at this, let’s get one thing straight: no coach is going to employ such a strategy. The vast majority of coaches refuse to give a foul on the last possession when they’re up by three, which is a strategy that vastly improves the leading team’s chances of victory. With that said, the strategy posed by Shane is worth discussing from a theoretical point of view. One thing we shouldn’t forget is that this question assumes that the players are able to carry out the strategy successfully, which in a free-flowing game like basketball is not a safe assumption. However, I’ll make this assumption to simplify the analysis. To start the calculations, the Mountaineers would have most likely fouled Jonathan Wallace or Jessie Sapp, the last two Hoya players to touch the ball on the possession. Wallace is an 85% shooter this season in just 25 attempts, 83% on his career. In any case, Wallace is a better shooter than Sapp, so let’s use Wallace’s figure to test the worst case from WVU’s perspective. There are three possibilities related to Wallace’s hypothetical trip to the line. (For those averse to intense math, you might want to turn away.) Scenario A: Wallace makes both four shots. There’s a 72% chance Wallace makes both free throws and ties the game. WVU would have had a few seconds for a final possession. I’ll just guess and say they have a 40% of scoring. This may be a little high, but we saw their final possession, and there’s a reasonable argument that they did score anyway. They only had six seconds then, but in the fouling scenario they’d have a little more time. Secnario B: Wallace makes the first and misses the second. There’s a 13% chance of this happening. Georgetown’s chances of winning then depend on them getting an offensive rebound and making the follow-up. I’ll generously give them a 25% chance of the offensive rebound and a 50% chance of converting. Scenario C: Wallace misses the first. There’s a 15% chance of this happening, in which case I’ll assume that Wallace intentionally misses the second. The same percentages hold for scenario B from that point on, although in this case a conversion results in a tie. I’ll throw in a 10% chance that the conversion results in an and-one, thus giving Georgetown the lead. To sort out what these options mean in terms of winning, let’s put in table form. The percentages listed are absolute. For example, there’s a two percent chance of Scenario C occurring and Georgetown converting the second missed free throw for a tying basket. Scenario A B C Sum Chance of... Occurring: 72% 13% 15% 100% Georgetown tying: 72% 0% 2% 73% Georgetown leading: 0% 2% <1% 2% Then WVU winning: 29% 11% 13% 53% Then WVU tying: 43% 0% 2% 45% From the WVU tying scenario, it seems reasonable to assume that overtime is a 50/50 proposition in this case. So I’ll put half of that 45% into both the WVU and Georgetown win chances. This leaves us with roughly a 75% that WVU wins by employing this strategy. Then the question becomes whether the Mountaineers would have a better chance of winning by playing the final possession straight up. I’m not going to bore you with the details of that calculation, but it’s a close call. The two most variable factors in this strategy are the free throw shooting of the opposing player and the chances of winning in overtime. If UTEP’s Tony Barbee had encountered this scenario in last Saturday’s surprisingly close finish against Memphis, it would have made a lot of sense for UTEP to foul. He would not have done so, of course. Given how far this type of strategy is from mainstream thinking in college hoops, it will only ever be employed in video games. Regardless, there are cases where it would come in handy in real life.

Yeah, Ken, one of those cases  came into play tonight as Pitt had two bad foul shooters on the floor in Blair and Young, both under 70% for the season. Why coaches never think to employ this type of strategy infuriates me. I can think of many high-profile games, not just WVU, that teams have lost in this manner.

II. Alexander and Ruoff: We’re not going to win many Big East games with these two combining for ten points. Alexander sulked on the bench most of the first half and when he was in the game lacked on defense and took terrible shot selection. Ruoff has simply disappeared from the offense the last three games and looked uninspired on defense tonight. Another lack of effort from Wellington Smith who left his man open on the last two plays of the game to seal it for Pitt. Very frustrating. NCAA chances are pretty much out the window now unless we win the Big East tournament.

III.  These sour grapes are making me thirsty: Our same old bug-a-boo. 7 of 17 from the charity stripe tonight. That’s right, another night of 3-point shooting (9-of-20) outstripping foul shooting that is absolutely inexcusable. But how in the world can the officiating crew replay to show Alexander as the incorrect shooter — AND take points off the board after the free throws have already been made. Anybody with half a brain knew that Cam Thoroughman would follow up by missing the front-end of the bonus. I have never seen points taken off the scoreboard in such a manner before. And it goes to show how much that crew sucks if they couldn’t identify the correct shooter in the first place, and the replay showed that it probably wasn’t a foul in the second place.

WVU now gets a week off before the state of New Jersey visits Morgantown (the ones who aren’t here already) with Rutgers followed by Seton Hall.

Mountaineer Gridders Arrested for Littering And…

The Mountain Top has obtained exclusive footage of the arrest of John Holmes, James Ingram and Ed Collington from the Morgantown P.D. this week.

On a more serious note, the D.A. has the scoop on both the arrest and dismissal from the team. What else can really be said at this point? You hate to see these young men flush their football careers down the drain. But hopefully they will learn from the mistakes. Hopefully WVU fans will realize the glass house we cast stones from when we make fun of other programs.